Walkthrough
Can I retire with $2 million and spend $100k a year?
Spending $100,000 a year from $2 million is a 5% withdrawal rate, above the classic 4% rule. Social Security and a little flexibility change the answer a lot.
69 of 69 past retirements, each starting in a different year from 1928 to 1996, lasted the full 30 years spending $100,000 a year.
- Money left at the end
- Ran short before the end
What this means
Under these assumptions, spending $100,000 a year from $2,000,000 lasted the full 30 years in every retirement since 1928, including the hardest start in 1966, when savings bottomed out near $747k. Social Security of $40,000 a year covers part of it.
You had room to spare: steady spending up to about $114,500 a year lasted through every start. In most starts, retirees following the plan ended with more than they began with; the typical (median) ending balance was $4,487,607.
With guardrails, which trim spending about 10% after each big drop (up to 20% in the worst starts) and raise it after strong years, the same starting spending lasted in 100% of starts, and spending never fell below $80,000 a year.
This is a test against past markets, not a forecast. It shows how the plan would have held up through real crashes and inflation, which is a better stress test than a single average return.
Without Social Security: 5% is a stretch
Taking $100,000 a year from savings alone, with fixed spending, ran short in a meaningful number of historical 30-year retirements, mostly those that began in the 1960s and around the Depression. Set Social Security to 0 above to see it.
With Social Security: a very different plan
If Social Security pays $40,000 a year, only $60,000 has to come from savings, a 3% withdrawal rate. That held up in every historical start. Even if benefits start five years in, the plan improves sharply, because only the first few years carry the full 5%.
This is why it’s worth separating total spending from withdrawals. The question isn’t whether $2 million can fund $100,000; it’s whether $2 million can fund the part Social Security doesn’t.
Making 5% work without Social Security
- Guardrails: trimming about 10% after big drops lifted historical success substantially.
- A cash bucket: covers the first bad years so you aren’t selling at the bottom.
- A spending floor: know the lowest you could live on. The planner shows how often you’d get near it.
Assumptions
- Spending rises with inflation every year and never changes otherwise, as in the classic 4% rule.
- Your savings hold 60% S&P 500 stocks (dividends reinvested) and 40% 10-year Treasuries, rebalanced yearly.
- Each test uses a real 30-year stretch of market history starting in one year from 1928 to 1996.
- Withdrawals happen at the start of each year. Taxes and fees are not included.
New to a term? See the retirement income glossary.
Common questions
Is a 5% withdrawal rate sustainable?
With fixed spending, 5% fell short in a meaningful share of historical 30-year starts. With guardrails or other income it has been far more sustainable.
How much do I need to spend $100,000 a year in retirement?
At 4%, $2.5 million with no other income. With $40,000 of Social Security, about $1.5 million covers the remaining $60,000.
Related tools
How we calculate this
We replay your spending through every 30-year stretch of actual U.S. market history since 1928. Each year, the withdrawal comes out first, then the rest earns that year’s real (after-inflation) return for your stock and bond mix. A start “lasts” if every year’s withdrawal was paid in full.
Data: S&P 500 total returns, 10-year Treasury and 3-month Treasury bill returns as compiled by Aswath Damodaran (NYU Stern), and CPI-U inflation from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1928–2025 (2025 preliminary). Read the full methodology and limitations.