Walkthrough
Can I retire with $1 million?
Yes, for many people, depending on what you spend and what Social Security adds. Here’s how $1 million held up at different spending levels through every market since 1928.
65 of 69 past retirements, each starting in a different year from 1928 to 1996, lasted the full 30 years spending $40,000 a year.
- Money left at the end
- Ran short before the end
Different spending levels with $1M
| Yearly spending | Fixed spending lasted | With guardrails | Guardrails’ lowest year |
|---|---|---|---|
| $25,000 (2.5%) | 100% | 100% | $20,000 |
| $30,000 (3.0%) | 100% | 100% | $24,000 |
| $35,000 (3.5%) | 100% | 100% | $28,000 |
| $40,000 (4.0%) | 94% | 100% | $32,000 |
| $45,000 (4.5%) | 84% | 99% | Ran out in some starts |
| $50,000 (5.0%) | 72% | 90% | Ran out in some starts |
What this means
Spending $40,000 a year from $1,000,000 lasted the full 30 years in 65 of 69 historical starts (94%). The starts that fell short were 1965, 1966, 1968 and 1969, heading into the high inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s.
The highest steady spending that lasted through every start, including the hardest ones, was about $37,000 a year (3.7% of savings). Spending above that relies on not retiring into a stretch like the worst on record.
With guardrails, which trim spending about 10% after each big drop (up to 20% in the worst starts) and raise it after strong years, the same starting spending lasted in 100% of starts, and spending never fell below $32,000 a year.
This is a test against past markets, not a forecast. It shows how the plan would have held up through real crashes and inflation, which is a better stress test than a single average return.
What $1 million pays, in plain numbers
At the classic 4% rule, $1 million supports $40,000 a year, about $3,333 a month before taxes, rising with inflation. Add a typical Social Security benefit of $25,000 to $35,000 a year and total income lands around $65,000 to $75,000.
The table above shows how often different spending levels lasted 30 years, both with fixed spending and with guardrails that trim spending in bad markets.
When $1 million is enough, and when it’s tight
- Usually enough: spending from savings at or below about $40,000, a paid-off home, Social Security covering the basics.
- Workable with flexibility: $45,000 to $50,000 from savings if you’d accept small cuts in bad years.
- Tight: $55,000+ from savings, retiring before 60 with no other income, or high health costs before Medicare.
Assumptions
- Spending rises with inflation every year and never changes otherwise, as in the classic 4% rule.
- Your savings hold 60% S&P 500 stocks (dividends reinvested) and 40% 10-year Treasuries, rebalanced yearly.
- Each test uses a real 30-year stretch of market history starting in one year from 1928 to 1996.
- Withdrawals happen at the start of each year. Taxes and fees are not included.
New to a term? See the retirement income glossary.
Common questions
How long will $1 million last in retirement?
At $40,000 a year with a balanced mix, it lasted 30 years in nearly every historical start, and usually far longer. At $60,000 a year, the hardest starts ran out in under 20 years.
Can I retire at 60 with $1 million?
Often yes, especially with Social Security from 67. See our retire-at-60 calculator for your exact numbers.
Is $1 million enough for a couple?
It depends on combined Social Security. Two benefits often cover $40,000 to $60,000 a year, which reduces what $1 million has to supply.
Related tools
How we calculate this
We replay your spending through every 30-year stretch of actual U.S. market history since 1928. Each year, the withdrawal comes out first, then the rest earns that year’s real (after-inflation) return for your stock and bond mix. A start “lasts” if every year’s withdrawal was paid in full.
Data: S&P 500 total returns, 10-year Treasury and 3-month Treasury bill returns as compiled by Aswath Damodaran (NYU Stern), and CPI-U inflation from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1928–2025 (2025 preliminary). Read the full methodology and limitations.