Summary, 1928–2025
| Asset | Average yearly return | Compound yearly return | Compound, after inflation |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (total return) | 11.86% | 10.02% | 6.78% |
| 10-year Treasury bond | 4.81% | 4.53% | 1.45% |
| 3-month Treasury bill | 3.36% | 3.32% | 0.28% |
| 60/40 stocks and bonds | 9.04% | 8.34% | 5.15% |
| Inflation (CPI-U) | 3.11% | 3.04% | — |
The average yearly return is the simple average of each year’s return. The compound return is what a dollar actually grew at each year over the whole period, which is always lower when returns vary. The 60/40 mix is rebalanced every year.
Best years for stocks: 1954 (52.56%), 1933 (49.98%), 1935 (46.74%), 1928 (43.81%), 1958 (43.72%). Worst years: 1931 (−43.84%), 2008 (−36.55%), 1937 (−35.34%), 1974 (−25.90%), 1930 (−25.12%).
Returns by decade
| Decade | S&P 500 | S&P 500 after inflation | 10-year Treasury | Inflation | 60/40 after inflation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1930s | −0.92% | 1.15% | 3.96% | −2.05% | 4.39% |
| 1940s | 8.50% | 2.95% | 2.50% | 5.39% | 0.91% |
| 1950s | 19.46% | 16.86% | 0.78% | 2.22% | 9.93% |
| 1960s | 7.74% | 5.09% | 2.43% | 2.52% | 3.25% |
| 1970s | 5.92% | −1.35% | 5.41% | 7.36% | −1.18% |
| 1980s | 17.34% | 11.65% | 11.96% | 5.10% | 9.82% |
| 1990s | 18.05% | 14.69% | 7.38% | 2.93% | 10.70% |
| 2000s | −0.95% | −3.39% | 6.26% | 2.53% | 0.40% |
| 2010s | 13.44% | 11.48% | 4.13% | 1.75% | 8.04% |
| 2020s (to 2025) | 14.95% | 10.58% | −0.75% | 3.94% | 4.68% |
Compound yearly returns within each decade. Notice the 1970s: stocks barely beat inflation and bonds lost to it, the main reason retirements starting in the late 1960s were the hardest on record. See what happened to 1966 retirees.
Every year, 1928–2025
| Year | S&P 500 | 10-year Treasury | 3-month T-bill | Inflation (CPI) | S&P 500, real | 60/40, real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025* | 17.90% | 7.00% | 4.20% | 2.70% | 14.80% | 10.56% |
| 2024 | 24.88% | −1.64% | 4.97% | 2.89% | 21.37% | 11.06% |
| 2023 | 26.06% | 3.88% | 5.07% | 3.35% | 21.97% | 13.39% |
| 2022 | −18.04% | −17.83% | 2.02% | 6.45% | −23.01% | −22.93% |
| 2021 | 28.47% | −4.42% | 0.06% | 7.04% | 20.02% | 7.73% |
| 2020 | 18.02% | 11.33% | 0.09% | 1.36% | 16.44% | 13.80% |
| 2019 | 31.21% | 9.64% | 1.55% | 2.29% | 28.27% | 19.84% |
| 2018 | −4.23% | −0.02% | 2.37% | 1.91% | −6.02% | −4.37% |
| 2017 | 21.61% | 2.80% | 1.39% | 2.11% | 19.10% | 11.73% |
| 2016 | 11.77% | 0.69% | 0.51% | 2.07% | 9.50% | 5.16% |
| 2015 | 1.38% | 1.28% | 0.21% | 0.73% | 0.65% | 0.61% |
| 2014 | 13.52% | 10.75% | 0.05% | 0.76% | 12.66% | 11.56% |
| 2013 | 32.15% | −9.10% | 0.07% | 1.50% | 30.20% | 13.94% |
| 2012 | 15.89% | 2.97% | 0.05% | 1.74% | 13.91% | 8.83% |
| 2011 | 2.10% | 16.04% | 0.03% | 2.96% | −0.84% | 4.58% |
| 2010 | 14.82% | 8.46% | 0.13% | 1.50% | 13.12% | 10.62% |
| 2009 | 25.94% | −11.12% | 0.14% | 2.72% | 22.61% | 8.17% |
| 2008 | −36.55% | 20.10% | 1.59% | 0.09% | −36.61% | −13.97% |
| 2007 | 5.48% | 10.21% | 4.64% | 4.08% | 1.35% | 3.16% |
| 2006 | 15.61% | 1.96% | 4.68% | 2.54% | 12.75% | 7.42% |
| 2005 | 4.83% | 2.87% | 3.01% | 3.42% | 1.36% | 0.61% |
| 2004 | 10.74% | 4.49% | 1.23% | 3.26% | 7.24% | 4.82% |
| 2003 | 28.36% | 0.38% | 1.03% | 1.88% | 25.99% | 15.01% |
| 2002 | −21.97% | 15.12% | 1.66% | 2.38% | −23.78% | −9.29% |
| 2001 | −11.85% | 5.57% | 3.67% | 1.55% | −13.20% | −6.33% |
| 2000 | −9.03% | 16.66% | 5.76% | 3.39% | −12.01% | −2.07% |
| 1999 | 20.89% | −8.25% | 4.51% | 2.68% | 17.73% | 6.38% |
| 1998 | 28.34% | 14.92% | 4.73% | 1.61% | 26.31% | 21.02% |
| 1997 | 33.10% | 9.94% | 5.05% | 1.70% | 30.88% | 21.77% |
| 1996 | 22.68% | 1.43% | 5.02% | 3.32% | 18.74% | 10.51% |
| 1995 | 37.20% | 23.48% | 5.52% | 2.54% | 33.80% | 28.45% |
| 1994 | 1.33% | −8.04% | 3.99% | 2.67% | −1.31% | −4.96% |
| 1993 | 9.97% | 14.21% | 2.98% | 2.75% | 7.03% | 8.68% |
| 1992 | 7.49% | 9.36% | 3.41% | 2.90% | 4.46% | 5.19% |
| 1991 | 30.23% | 15.00% | 5.61% | 3.06% | 26.36% | 20.45% |
| 1990 | −3.06% | 6.24% | 7.55% | 6.11% | −8.64% | −5.14% |
| 1989 | 31.48% | 17.69% | 8.11% | 4.65% | 25.64% | 20.37% |
| 1988 | 16.54% | 8.22% | 6.45% | 4.42% | 11.61% | 8.42% |
| 1987 | 5.81% | −4.96% | 5.72% | 4.43% | 1.32% | −2.80% |
| 1986 | 18.49% | 24.28% | 6.04% | 1.10% | 17.20% | 19.49% |
| 1985 | 31.24% | 25.71% | 7.49% | 3.80% | 26.44% | 24.30% |
| 1984 | 6.15% | 13.73% | 9.61% | 3.95% | 2.12% | 5.03% |
| 1983 | 22.34% | 3.20% | 8.45% | 3.79% | 17.87% | 10.50% |
| 1982 | 20.42% | 32.81% | 11.01% | 3.83% | 15.98% | 20.75% |
| 1981 | −4.70% | 8.20% | 14.30% | 8.92% | −12.50% | −7.77% |
| 1980 | 31.74% | −2.99% | 11.22% | 12.52% | 17.08% | 4.74% |
| 1979 | 18.52% | 0.67% | 9.94% | 13.29% | 4.62% | −1.69% |
| 1978 | 6.51% | −0.78% | 6.93% | 9.02% | −2.30% | −4.98% |
| 1977 | −6.98% | 1.29% | 5.13% | 6.70% | −12.82% | −9.72% |
| 1976 | 23.83% | 15.98% | 4.97% | 4.86% | 18.09% | 15.10% |
| 1975 | 37.00% | 3.61% | 5.99% | 6.94% | 28.11% | 15.62% |
| 1974 | −25.90% | 1.99% | 7.78% | 12.34% | −34.04% | −24.11% |
| 1973 | −14.31% | 3.66% | 6.73% | 8.71% | −21.18% | −14.56% |
| 1972 | 18.76% | 2.82% | 3.95% | 3.41% | 14.84% | 8.68% |
| 1971 | 14.22% | 9.79% | 4.54% | 3.27% | 10.60% | 8.89% |
| 1970 | 3.56% | 16.75% | 6.69% | 5.57% | −1.90% | 3.09% |
| 1969 | −8.24% | −5.01% | 6.56% | 6.20% | −13.60% | −12.38% |
| 1968 | 10.81% | 3.27% | 5.26% | 4.72% | 5.82% | 2.94% |
| 1967 | 23.80% | −1.58% | 4.33% | 3.04% | 20.15% | 10.30% |
| 1966 | −9.97% | 2.91% | 4.84% | 3.46% | −12.98% | −8.00% |
| 1965 | 12.40% | 0.72% | 3.90% | 1.92% | 10.28% | 5.70% |
| 1964 | 16.42% | 3.73% | 3.51% | 0.97% | 15.30% | 10.27% |
| 1963 | 22.61% | 1.68% | 3.11% | 1.64% | 20.63% | 12.39% |
| 1962 | −8.81% | 5.69% | 2.78% | 1.33% | −10.01% | −4.28% |
| 1961 | 26.64% | 2.06% | 2.27% | 0.67% | 25.80% | 16.03% |
| 1960 | 0.34% | 11.64% | 3.05% | 1.36% | −1.01% | 3.45% |
| 1959 | 12.06% | −2.65% | 3.26% | 1.73% | 10.15% | 4.37% |
| 1958 | 43.72% | −2.10% | 1.78% | 1.76% | 41.23% | 23.22% |
| 1957 | −10.46% | 6.80% | 3.23% | 2.90% | −12.98% | −6.27% |
| 1956 | 7.44% | −2.26% | 2.56% | 2.99% | 4.32% | 0.55% |
| 1955 | 32.60% | −1.34% | 1.66% | 0.37% | 32.11% | 18.59% |
| 1954 | 52.56% | 3.29% | 0.96% | −0.74% | 53.70% | 33.84% |
| 1953 | −1.21% | 4.14% | 1.89% | 0.75% | −1.95% | 0.18% |
| 1952 | 18.15% | 2.27% | 1.67% | 0.75% | 17.27% | 10.97% |
| 1951 | 23.68% | −0.30% | 1.48% | 6.00% | 16.68% | 7.63% |
| 1950 | 30.81% | 0.43% | 1.17% | 5.93% | 23.49% | 12.02% |
| 1949 | 18.30% | 4.66% | 1.10% | −2.07% | 20.80% | 15.23% |
| 1948 | 5.70% | 1.95% | 1.02% | 2.99% | 2.63% | 1.17% |
| 1947 | 5.20% | 0.92% | 0.57% | 8.84% | −3.34% | −4.92% |
| 1946 | −8.43% | 3.13% | 0.38% | 18.13% | −22.48% | −18.57% |
| 1945 | 35.82% | 3.80% | 0.38% | 2.25% | 32.83% | 20.31% |
| 1944 | 19.03% | 2.58% | 0.38% | 2.11% | 16.57% | 10.13% |
| 1943 | 25.06% | 2.49% | 0.38% | 3.16% | 21.23% | 12.48% |
| 1942 | 19.17% | 2.29% | 0.34% | 9.29% | 9.04% | 2.86% |
| 1941 | −12.77% | −2.02% | 0.13% | 9.72% | −20.50% | −16.58% |
| 1940 | −10.67% | 5.40% | 0.04% | 0.96% | −11.52% | −5.15% |
| 1939 | −1.10% | 4.41% | 0.05% | −0.48% | −0.62% | 1.59% |
| 1938 | 29.28% | 4.21% | 0.07% | −2.78% | 32.98% | 22.66% |
| 1937 | −35.34% | 1.38% | 0.28% | 3.10% | −37.28% | −23.04% |
| 1936 | 31.94% | 5.02% | 0.17% | 1.21% | 30.36% | 19.72% |
| 1935 | 46.74% | 4.47% | 0.17% | 2.99% | 42.48% | 26.06% |
| 1934 | −1.19% | 7.96% | 0.28% | 2.03% | −3.16% | 0.43% |
| 1933 | 49.98% | 1.86% | 0.96% | 0.51% | 49.22% | 30.07% |
| 1932 | −8.64% | 8.79% | 1.07% | −10.30% | 1.85% | 9.62% |
| 1931 | −43.84% | −2.56% | 2.31% | −9.52% | −37.93% | −19.68% |
| 1930 | −25.12% | 4.54% | 4.55% | −6.03% | −20.31% | −7.69% |
| 1929 | −8.30% | 4.20% | 3.16% | 0.20% | −8.48% | −3.49% |
| 1928 | 43.81% | 0.84% | 3.08% | −0.97% | 45.22% | 27.86% |
*2025 figures are preliminary. “Real” means after inflation.
Sources and notes
- Stocks, bonds and bills: S&P 500 total return with dividends reinvested, 10-year U.S. Treasury bond total return and 3-month Treasury bill return, following the annual series compiled by Aswath Damodaran at NYU Stern.
- Inflation: Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), December to December, from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Figures are rounded to two decimals and may differ slightly from other published versions. For research, check the original sources.
- These are the exact series every Income Horizon calculator uses. See our methodology for how they’re applied.